
Somewhere right now, an agency owner is lying awake doing the math.
A big client went quiet last week. A pitch they should have won went somewhere else. Every headline says AI is about to change everything, and it’s impossible to tell whether that’s a threat or a gift. The agency across town looks like it’s thriving—but everyone looks like they’re thriving from the outside.
So the question just sits there: are we doing fine, or are we falling behind? And how would we even know?
You can’t answer that from inside your own shop, but once a year, one study pulls back for a wider view. Agency Core surveys hundreds of small and mid-size agencies on how they feel, what’s hard, and what’s working. Its companion study, Agency Edge, puts forth the same questions to its clients.
There’s no single answer to ‘how are agencies doing,’ because there isn’t one kind of agency leader. When Agency Core analyzed the 2026 survey, leaders didn’t share a single mood or outlook—their attitudes clustered into three distinct groups.
The analysis names them Confident Differentiators, Pressured & Uncertain, and AI Opportunity Embracers.
(These are preliminary findings from the 2026 wave; the segment names are Agency Core’s analytical labels, not fixed categories.)
What “Attitudinal Segments” Actually Means.
A quick note on method, because it changes how you read the rest.
Most industry research sorts agencies by the obvious things: size, revenue, discipline, and region. Agency Core doesn’t. It groups leaders by attitudinal segmentation—shared patterns in what they believe and feel, drawn from dozens of attitude questions.
The groups aren’t assigned; they’re revealed. Two agencies of the same size in the same city can land in different segments, because they think about their work differently.
One consequence worth holding onto: you might not self-identify with the segment your answers place you in. The clusters come from the pattern across many responses, not from a single question. So a segment describes a mindset that shows up across the data—not a personality test, and not a box you’re stuck in.
Face One: The Confident Differentiators
One group is clearly outperforming the rest.
Confident Differentiators aren’t problem-free—they hit the same headwinds as everyone else—but they run into those problems less often, and when they do, they tend to resolve them.
It’s the position every agency wants, but it’s also the position with the least obvious risk, and it’s worth naming.
Confidence earned last year doesn’t renew itself. The agencies that hold this spot tend to keep studying their clients and testing what new tools can do, rather than assuming the lead is permanent.
Face Two: Pressured & Uncertain
A second group sits in a harder place—feeling the squeeze, less sure of the path forward. The telling part isn’t that these leaders face bigger problems. It’s that the problems are often the same ones the confident group faces. What differs is the response.
That points to a pattern running underneath all three faces—more on it below.
Face Three: The AI Opportunity Embracers
The third group is defined by how it reads the technological moment. Where much of the industry treats AI as a threat, this segment sees an opening. And when you look at what clients actually say, that instinct holds up.
The Mirror: What Clients Say (Agency Edge 2026)
Here’s what makes the 2026 cycle different: for the first time, the agency view sits next to a client view of the same themes. That client view comes from the companion Agency Edge 2026 study—a separate survey of agencies’ clients.
Put side by side, the two don’t always agree, and the gaps are the interesting part. Agencies, it turns out, are often more pessimistic than the client data warrants.
A few of the patterns on the client side:
- Clients consistently and strongly value their agencies. Across every difference between client types, that regard is one of the steadiest things in the data.
- On AI, the fear and the reality point in opposite directions. Clients largely want their agencies to use new tools to do better work—not simply cheaper work.
- Clients look to their agencies for a foundation: to lead on how the work gets done well, including how AI fits into it.
Which raises a second question for any agency leader, alongside “which of the three faces is mine?”—namely, which faces are your clients, and where do your assumptions about them not match what they actually say?
The Pattern Beneath the Faces: Knowing vs. Doing
Across the segments, one signal stands out in the 2026 agency data: most agencies struggling with a given problem already know a strategy they believe would fix it. They just aren’t pursuing it.
Agency Core points to one example. About eighteen months ago, an agency deep in real challenges stopped deliberating and finally acted on the strategies it already believed in.
Since then, revenue has climbed, and its pipeline has held steady. It’s an anonymized account, not a data point, but it puts a face on the pattern: the distance between the confident group and the pressured group looks less like a gap in knowledge than a gap in action.
This is a moment of opportunity, not decline. The agencies pulling ahead aren’t luckier or better capitalized than the rest—by Agency Core’s account of the data, they’re the ones acting on what they already know.
That’s a gap any agency can close, which is more useful to sit with than a forecast.
Which Face Is Yours?
None of this tells you what to do with it—that part’s on you. We’ve shared our take along the way, but the most useful move isn’t taking our word for it; it’s holding the data up against your own agency and your own clients.
A few questions worth sitting with:
- Which of the three faces looks most like your agency right now, and what would it cost to be honest about that?
- Which of these mindsets describe your clients, and do those clients make sense for the agency you actually want to be?
- Where does your sense of what clients think line up with what clients say—and where doesn’t it?
- And if there’s a strategy you already believe would help: what’s the distance between knowing it and doing it?
Explore the June focus report and its underlying visualization, then sit with the full findings yourself. Agree with them, argue with them, hold them up against your own experience. That’s exactly what they’re for.
Which brings us back to that owner lying awake. The research can’t tell them if they’re safe or finished—no honest study could.
What it can do is trade an unanswerable worry for a sharper set of questions: which of these agencies are we, which clients are we actually serving, and what’s the one thing we already know we should be doing?
Those have answers. And finding them—then acting on them—is the whole difference this research keeps pointing to. That decision is always in your hands.
Source: preliminary findings from the Agency Core 2026 and Agency Edge 2026 studies. Explore the data at agencycore.org.
Frequently Asked Questions
FAQs
What’s the difference between the Agency Core and Agency Edge studies?
Agency Core surveys small and mid-size agency leaders on how they feel about their work, what’s hard, and what’s working. Agency Edge is its companion study, putting similar questions to those agencies’ clients.
The 2026 cycle is the first to set the two side by side, so the agency view can be read against a client’s view of the same themes. Each study is reported separately.
How were the three faces determined?
They come from attitudinal segmentation. Rather than sorting agencies by size, revenue, discipline, or region, Agency Core groups leaders are grouped by shared patterns in what they believe and feel, drawn from dozens of attitude questions.
The groups aren’t assigned in advance; they’re revealed by the pattern across responses. Two agencies of the same size in the same city can land in different segments because they think about their work differently.
Can an agency belong to more than one of the three faces, or move between them?
The segments describe a mindset that shows up across the data, not a fixed box. You might not self-identify with the segment your answers place you in, since each cluster reflects a pattern across many responses rather than a single question.
As Brian Gerstner notes, most agency owners recognize themselves in all three at different points in their own history.